A Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Harvey found a well-defined low-pressure center Wednesday morning with wind speeds below tropical storm strength. Therefore, the National Hurricane Center has begun to issue advisories on Harvey once again.
The NHC says that the center of Harvey is located about 470 miles southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas, and is moving northwest at 9 mph.
With an otherwise favorable environment that includes deep, warm Gulf of Mexico water, we can't rule out Harvey strengthening into a hurricane before its landfall, bringing the risk of storm surge flooding, high surf with battering waves and strong winds.
Various NOAA aircraft reconnaissance missions will provide data that will likely help numerical forecast models determine the exact future intensity and track of Harvey.
Regardless of intensity or track, a major flooding rainfall threat looms, and it may last into next week.
The storm is moving northwest at about 10 mph. At this rate, it could reach the Texas coastline on Friday. Chief Meteorologist Tim Heller says upper level steering winds could weaken, which would cause the storm to stall across southeast Texas, producing periods of heavy rain through the weekend and possibly into early next week.
There is a lot of uncertainty regarding this developing tropical situation. And the forecast could change. But just in case, now is the time to review your family hurricane plan.